Philippe Martinez, Secretary General
of the left-wing CGT, said Monday that 9 French labor unions agreed to join a public
strike on Tuesday (February 5, 2019). The strike is expected to include all
state facilities in France, i.e. transportation, hospitals, post offices,
airports and train stations, according to Martinez.
French observers say the strike will
be the worst since 201. Hardliner Martinez aims at persuading the ‘yellow vests’
protesters to join forces with him in tomorrow’s demonstration to force the
French government to take the following actions:
1. To raise salaries and pensions
for all classes and for all workers and employees in France.
2 – To scrap all tax exemptions for
mega industrial companies.
3 – To take part in in the ongoing
societal dialogue, but down there in the streets as Martinez put it.
Those who have been following the
crisis, which was triggered by protests on November 17, 2018 against the fuel
taxes under President Emmanuel Macron’s economic reform plan as laid out in his
included his campaigning for presidential election, see confusion, inexperience
and lack of a clear-cut political vision on the President’s teamwork as well as
the absence of his party -- La République En Marche! (LREM) -- on the political
scene, leaving him facing the street alone with no backing at all.
Now the snowball has rolled and got
complicated in December and January, deepening the crisis and has turned it
from clear economic fix to a deep, serious political and social crisis. Such a
situation has reduced Macron’s options, giving his political rivals at home and
abroad the chance to exacerbate the crisis.
Macron’s options
Now President Macron has only 4 main
options:
The first option is to resort to a
public referendum on his policies following in the footsteps of Gen. Charles de
Gaulle in dealing with student demonstration in 1968. In such a case, there
would be 80% possibility of loss. This is the same percentage that approve the ‘yellow
vests’ protests.
The second option will be the
dissolution of the National Assembly and calling for legislative elections,
which will lead to a victory of one of the opposition parties or an alliance of
two main parties: the Front National Party, which is led by Marine Le Pen, and La
France Insoumise party, headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. There could be a “coexistence
cabinet”, like what happened in 1986 (François Mitterrand and Jacque Chirac)
and in 1993 and 1997(Chirac and Édouard Balladur and Lionel Jospin).
This coexistence takes the president’s
powers completely, regarding the domestic policies, and gives them to the prime
minister, who has a different vision from the President's program. As for foreign
policy and defense issues, the president will need to consult with the prime minister.
Although this would ruin Macron's political future, it will be a kiss of life
Macron for the coming three years in office.
The third option is to sack the present
government led by Édouard Philippe and the formation of a national unity cabinet
to be led by a strong left-center or center-left political figure.
Moreover, centrist François Bayrou
or Jean-Yves Le Drian (center-left) may form a new cabinet with the help of
ministers from various political trends.
If that happens smoothly, Macron
will maintain his grassroots support, keeping his political influence ahead of
the next presidential elections.
